Friday, November 28, 2014

Tweet

[IWS] ADB: THE DECLINING SHARE OF AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: HOW FAST? [27 November 2014]

IWS Documented News Service

_______________________________

Institute for Workplace Studies-----------------Professor Samuel B. Bacharach

School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies

Cornell University

16 East 34th Street, 4th floor--------------------Stuart Basefsky

New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau

________________________________________________________________________

This service is supported, in part, by donations. Please consider making a donation by following the instructions at http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/iws/news-bureau/support.html

 

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 419 | 2014

 

The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast? [27 November 2014]

by Jesus Felipe, Connie Dacuycuy, and Matteo Lanzafame

http://www.adb.org/publications/declining-share-agricultural-employment-prc-how-fast

or

http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/149676/ewp-419.pdf

[full-text, 24 pages]

 

The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC's) aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy.

 

Rapid economic growth has long been viewed by the PRC’s policymakers as the most powerful antidote to reform-induced job loss. For an economy that needs about 10 million new jobs each year to keep its urban unemployment rate constant, any growth slowdown is a major concern.

 

This paper hypothesizes that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model was used to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that it can be used for forecasting.Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). It is also estimated that the PRC’s employment share will reach 5% by 2042-2048 5.0%, approximately the same as in advanced economies today.

 

Contents

 

Tables and Figures

Abstract

Introduction

Empirical Strategy

Estimation, Discussion of the Results and Forecasting

Conclusions

References

 

 

________________________________________________________________________

This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




Links to this post:

Create a Link



<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?