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Asian Development Bank (ADB)

ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 418 | 2014

 

The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints [27 November 2014]

by Jesus Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame,and Juzhong Zhuang

http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/149729/ewp-418.pdf

[full-text, 41 pages]

 

A number of factors seem to signal that the recent decrease in People's Republic of China's growth rate may be structural, rather than temporary, in the sense that it reflects a permanent shift to a slower potential growth rate path.

 

This paper assesses the trajectory of the People's Republic of China's (PRC’s) potential growth rate during the last 30 years in order to understand the policy dilemmas that the PRC’s policymakers face. It evaluates the relevance of various possible constraints that may limit the country’s growth in the future, focusing on the effects of the slowdown in working-age population growth and on the long-term constraint imposed by the balance of payments equilibrium. It also devotes special attention to the role played by structural change, and assesses the implications of the increasing importance of the services sector for the PRC’s future growth.

 

Contents

 

Tables and Figures

Abstract

Executive Summary

Introduction

The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and the 13th Five-Year Plan

Actual, Natural, and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Rates

Estimates of the People’s Republic of China’s Natural and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Rates

Scenarios for the People's Republic of China’s Potential Growth During the 13th Five-Year Plan, 2016–2020

Conclusions: The People's Republic of China’s Potential Growth Prospects During the 13th Five-Year Plan and Implications for Policy

Appendix

References

 

 

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