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Institute for Workplace Studies-----------------Professor Samuel B. Bacharach

School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies

Cornell University

16 East 34th Street, 4th floor--------------------Stuart Basefsky

New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau

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Urban Institute (UI)

 

Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40 [29 April 2014]

by Steven Martin, Nan Astone, Elizabeth Peters

http://www.urban.org/publications/413110.html

or

http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/413110-Fewer-Marriages-More-Divergence.pdf

[full-text, 17 pages]

 

Abstract

Declining marriage rates suggest a growing fraction of millennials will remain unmarried through age 40. In this brief, we use data from the American Community Survey to estimate age-specific marriage rates and project the percentage of millennials who will marry by age 40 in different scenarios. We find that the percentage of millennials marrying by age 40 will fall lower than for any previous generation of Americans, even in a scenario where marriage rates recover considerably. Moreover, marriage patterns will continue to diverge by education and race, increasing the divides between mostly married “haves” and increasingly single "have-nots".

 

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