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_______________________________

Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach

School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies

Cornell University

16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky

New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau

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Congressional Research Service (CRS)

 

Border Security: Understanding Threats at U.S. Borders

Marc R. Rosenblum, Specialist in Immigration Policy

Jerome P. Bjelopera, Specialist in Organized Crime and Terrorism

Kristin M. Finklea, Specialist in Domestic Security

February 21, 2013

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42969.pdf

[full-text, 33 pages]

 

Summary

The United States confronts a wide array of threats at U.S. borders, ranging from terrorists who

may have weapons of mass destruction, to transnational criminals smuggling drugs or counterfeit

goods, to unauthorized migrants intending to live and work in the United States. Given this

diversity of threats, how may Congress and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) set

border security priorities and allocate scarce enforcement resources?

 

In general, DHS’s answer to this question is organized around risk management, a process that

involves risk assessment and the allocation of resources based on a cost-benefit analysis. This

report focuses on the first part of this process by identifying border threats and describing a

framework for understanding risks at U.S. borders. DHS employs models to classify threats as

relatively high- or low-risk for certain planning and budgeting exercises and to implement certain

border security programs. Members of Congress may wish to use similar models to evaluate the

costs and benefits of potential border security policies and to allocate border enforcement

resources. This report discusses some of the issues involved in modeling border-related threats.

Understanding border risks begins with identifying key threats. At their roots, border-related

threats are closely linked to the flow of people (travelers) and goods (cargo) from one country to

another. Any smuggled item or individual hidden among the legitimate flows potentially

constitutes a threat to U.S. security or interests.

 

The intentions and actions of unauthorized travelers separate them into different threat categories,

including terrorists, transnational criminals, and other illegal migrants.

 

Illegal goods are distinguished by their inherent legitimacy or illegitimacy. Certain weapons,

illegal drugs, and counterfeit goods are always illegal and categorically prohibited, while other

goods are legal under most circumstances, but become illegitimate if they are smuggled to avoid

enforcement of specific laws, taxes, or regulations.

 

The risks associated with these diverse types of threats may be modeled as a function of (1) the

likelihood that the threat will be realized, and (2) the potential consequences of a given threat. In

practice, however, estimating likelihood and evaluating potential consequences are challenging

tasks, particularly when it comes to the diversity and complexity of border threats. Assessing

border threats is also difficult because terrorists, criminals, and migrants are strategic actors who

may adapt to border defenses. This report describes some of these challenges, and suggests

questions policymakers may ask to develop their own “maps” of border risks. Several potential

border threats are described, and the report summarizes what is known about their likelihood and

consequences.

 

The report concludes by discussing how risk assessment may interact with border security

policymaking. Given the uncertainty and the subjective judgments involved in modeling risk,

policymakers may struggle to reach a consensus on border priorities. Nonetheless, a systematic

approach to studying border threats may help clarify the types of policy tradeoffs lawmakers

confront at the border.

 

Contents

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1

Types of Border Threats................................................................................................................... 2

Threat Actors ............................................................................................................................. 6

Transnational Terrorists ....................................................................................................... 6

Transnational Criminals ...................................................................................................... 7

Unauthorized Migrants ........................................................................................................ 8

Illegal Goods ........................................................................................................................... 10

Categorically Prohibited .................................................................................................... 10

Illegal via Smuggling ........................................................................................................ 12

A Framework for Assessing Border Threats .................................................................................. 13

DHS and Risk Management .................................................................................................... 13

Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................................... 16

Understanding Border Threats ....................................................................................................... 18

Estimating the Likelihood of Border Threats .......................................................................... 19

Likelihood as Past Frequency ........................................................................................... 19

Likelihood as Expected Frequency ................................................................................... 20

The Strategic Actor Problem ............................................................................................. 22

Evaluating Potential Consequences of Border Threats............................................................ 22

Defining Consequences ..................................................................................................... 22

Measuring Consequences .................................................................................................. 23

Valuing Consequences....................................................................................................... 24

Assessment of Selected Border Threats .................................................................................. 25

Concluding Comments: Policymaking Challenges ....................................................................... 27

 

Figures

Figure 1. Border Threats and DHS Mission .................................................................................... 4

Figure 2. Types of Threat Actors ................................................................................................... 10

Figure 3. Two-Dimensional Risk Space ........................................................................................ 17

Figure 4. Border Policymaking Context ........................................................................................ 28

 

Tables

Table 1. Selected Border Threats ................................................................................................... 26

 

Contacts

Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 30

 

 

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