Monday, January 14, 2013
Tweet[IWS] CRS: ISRAEL: 2013 ELECTIONS PREVIEW [8 January 2013]
IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Congressional Research Service (CRS)
Israel: 2013 Elections Preview
Jim Zanotti, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
January 8, 2013
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R42888.pdf
[full-text, 17 pages]
Summary
Close U.S.-Israel relations drive congressional interest in upcoming elections for Israel’s 120-seat
Knesset (parliament), scheduled for January 22, 2013. Israeli leadership decisions may have
profound implications for matters of high U.S. priority, including potential threats from Iran and
its non-state allies (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), issues of ongoing Israeli-Palestinian dispute,
and political change in neighboring Arab states. The composition of a probable new coalition and
government led by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu could significantly influence Israeli
decisionmaking, politics, and relations with the outside world, including the United States. In
turn, this could affect U.S. popularity, credibility, and—ultimately—national security vis-à-vis the
Middle East and more broadly. For more information on Israeli politics and U.S.-Israel relations,
see CRS Report RL33476, Israel: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti.
Netanyahu came to power following elections in 2009, and called for the 2013 elections to take
place in January, nine months before they were required. Most polls and analyses predict that
Netanyahu will win another term as prime minister, but a drop in polling support for his joint
Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu list—possibly due in part to the indictment of Yisrael Beiteinu leader
Avigdor Lieberman—could increase his dependence on support from small right-of-center or
ultra-Orthodox parties that focus on specific issues and have seen their polling averages rise. If
they thus acquire disproportionate influence, such coalition partners—along with other parties,
cabinet ministers, and “hardline” elements within Likud—might constrain or otherwise affect
Netanyahu as he confronts a range of challenges that include the Iranian nuclear issue, cost-ofliving
and other budgetary matters, and the seemingly intractable situation with the Palestinians.
Netanyahu’s political opponents from the left and center appear thus far to have been
unsuccessful in attempts to gather a bloc that represents a viable political alternative.
The likely effects of Israel’s elections and related political developments on its internal cohesion
and foreign relations are unclear. Criticism by some U.S. and international observers of
Netanyahu’s government since 2009 has targeted expanding Jewish residential settlement in the
West Bank and East Jerusalem. Many of these critics accuse Israel’s leaders of a penchant for
short-term thinking, focused on maintaining territory and security control, at the potential expense
of a longer-term vision of mutual accommodation with other regional actors. Some Israelis
dismiss this criticism by insisting that it does not properly take into account the proximity,
multiplicity, and seriousness of the challenges Israel faces, or the concessions that Netanyahu and
other Israeli leaders have periodically made.
Should his party emerge with the largest Knesset representation, Netanyahu would play the
leading role in shaping the new coalition and government, but would need support from outside
his political support base. As part of this process, he would weigh various domestic and
international considerations—including the lack of a clear rival to his immediate leadership—
within an overall political, demographic, and regional security context. The strategic challenge of
Iran’s nuclear program and the potential for key short-term decision points on unilateral Israeli
military action are paramount among security concerns. However, the concerns also include
questions about growing threats in ungoverned spaces at Israel’s borders, increased potential for
West Bank instability, and the future nature of Israel’s relations with neighboring countries and
concerns about further international isolation. To the extent that Netanyahu’s choice of coalition
partners and ministers reveals his priorities and constraints as to policy initiatives, Members of
Congress can use this information to assess the status and trajectory of U.S.-Israel relations and
evaluate possible political, economic, and military options in the Middle East.
Contents
Introduction and Implications for Congress .................................................................................... 1
Overview.......................................................................................................................................... 1
General Assessment ................................................................................................................... 1
Political and Demographic Context ........................................................................................... 5
Key Electoral and Coalition-Building Questions ............................................................................ 7
Lieberman’s Legal Troubles: How Important a Factor? ............................................................ 7
How Might International Factors Affect the Process? ............................................................... 8
How Will a New Coalition Balance Political and Governance Considerations?....................... 9
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 11
Figures
Figure 1. 2013 Polling Averages Compared with 2009 Election Results ........................................ 3
Figure 2. Possible Post-Election Knesset Coalition Scenarios ...................................................... 10
Appendixes
Appendix. Major Parties Contesting 2013 Elections ..................................................................... 13
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 14
Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... 14
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