Friday, November 18, 2011
Tweet[IWS] ADB: Long-term projections of Asian GDP and trade—November 2011
IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Long-term projections of Asian GDP and trade—November 2011
http://beta.adb.org/sites/default/files/projections-gdp-trade.pdf
[full-text, 34 pages]
Contents
Acknowledgments iv
Executive Summary v
Abbreviations vi
I. Introduction . 1
II. Summaries and Key Findings 3
A. Summaries 3
1. Human Capital Accumulation in Emerging Asia, 1970–2030 3
2. Past and Future of the Labor Force in Emerging Asian Economies 4
3. Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects . 4
4. Projection of Long-Term Total Factor Productivity Growth for 12 Asian Economies . 4
5. The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia 5
6. Physical Capital Accumulation in Asia-12: Past Trends and Future Projections 6
7. Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Prospects . 6
B. Key Findings: Gross Domestic Product and Trade Projections, 2011–2030 7
1. Gross Domestic Product 7.
2. International Trade Flows . 10
III. Selected Issues . 12
A. Demographic Dividends and the Role of the Labor Force in Asia's Growth 12
B. Reforms for Efficiency-Driven Growth . 15
C. Developing Asia's Saving and Investment
Gap 17.
D. Income Convergence in Developing Asia . 20
1. β Convergence 20
2. σ Convergence 21
References 23
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Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 262-6041
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
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