Friday, July 31, 2009
Tweet[IWS] CBO'S ECONOMIC FORECASTING RECORD: 2009 UPDATE [31 July 2009]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2009 Update [31 July 2009]
July 2009
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=10484
or
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10484/07-30-ForecastingRecord2.pdf
[full-text, 48 pages]
Contents
Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation 1
Measuring the Quality of Forecasts 1
Statistical Bias 2
Accuracy 2
Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality 2
Limitations of Forecast Evaluations 2
The Effects of Business Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and
Oil Price Shocks 3
CBO's Forecasting Record 4
Two-Year Forecasts 5
Five-Year Projections 9
Appendix: Historical and Forecast Data 35
Tables
1. Summary Measures of Performance for Two-Year Average Forecasts 11
2. Summary Measures of Performance for Five-Year Average Projections 12
3. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 13
4. Comparison of CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growth Rates for Nominal Output 15
5. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Inflation in the Consumer Price Index 17
6. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Nominal Interest Rates on Three-Month Treasury Bills 19
7. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Averages for Nominal Long-Term Interest Rates 21
8. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Real Interest Rates on Three-Month Treasury Bills 22
9. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of the Difference Between Two-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in the GNP or GDP Price Index 24
10. CBO�s and the Administration�s Forecasts of the Two-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Book Profits as a Share of Output 26
11. CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 28
12. CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Nominal Output 30
13. Comparison of CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of the Difference Between Five-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in the GNP or GDP Price Index 32
14. CBO�s and the Administration�s Projections of the Five-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Profits as a Share of Output 34
Figure
1. Oil Price Fluctuations, 1967 to 2008 4
Box
1. How Data Revisions Can Affect the Interpretation of Forecasting Errors 6
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2009 Update [31 July 2009]
July 2009
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=10484
or
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10484/07-30-ForecastingRecord2.pdf
[full-text, 48 pages]
Contents
Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation 1
Measuring the Quality of Forecasts 1
Statistical Bias 2
Accuracy 2
Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality 2
Limitations of Forecast Evaluations 2
The Effects of Business Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and
Oil Price Shocks 3
CBO's Forecasting Record 4
Two-Year Forecasts 5
Five-Year Projections 9
Appendix: Historical and Forecast Data 35
Tables
1. Summary Measures of Performance for Two-Year Average Forecasts 11
2. Summary Measures of Performance for Five-Year Average Projections 12
3. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 13
4. Comparison of CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growth Rates for Nominal Output 15
5. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Inflation in the Consumer Price Index 17
6. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Nominal Interest Rates on Three-Month Treasury Bills 19
7. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Averages for Nominal Long-Term Interest Rates 21
8. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of Two-Year Average Real Interest Rates on Three-Month Treasury Bills 22
9. CBO's, Blue Chip's, and the Administration's Forecasts of the Difference Between Two-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in the GNP or GDP Price Index 24
10. CBO�s and the Administration�s Forecasts of the Two-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Book Profits as a Share of Output 26
11. CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 28
12. CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Nominal Output 30
13. Comparison of CBO�s, Blue Chip�s, and the Administration�s Projections of the Difference Between Five-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in the GNP or GDP Price Index 32
14. CBO�s and the Administration�s Projections of the Five-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Profits as a Share of Output 34
Figure
1. Oil Price Fluctuations, 1967 to 2008 4
Box
1. How Data Revisions Can Affect the Interpretation of Forecasting Errors 6
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 8:55 AM
