Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Tweet[IWS] CBO: GLOBAL AGING & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS [13 December 2005]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies
School of Industrial & Labor Relations
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor
New York, NY 10016
________________________________________________________________________
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
A Series on Immigration
Global Population Aging in the 21st Century and Its Economic Implications
13 DECEMBER 2005
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6952/12-12-Global.pdf
[full-text, 48 pages]
[excerpt]
The world is in the midst of a great demographic transition. The world population nearly
quadrupled during the 20th century and is projected to grow by roughly 50 percent before
stabilizing during the late 21st century. That transition is expected to leave the population
much larger and, on average, older than it was previouslydevelopments that have farreaching
implications for societies and governments throughout the world and for how they
are likely to interact.
This paper, requested by the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee,
is part of a series of reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that presents facts
and research on immigration. It describes historical and projected population trends in different
regions of the world and discusses current research on the international economic implications
of those trends. Such information will help inform CBOs projections of the domestic
and international economies and of the federal budget. In keeping with CBOs mandate to
provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, this paper makes no recommendations.
CONTENTS
Summary vii
Introduction 1
Sources of the Demographic Transition 1
Mortality and Life Expectancy 2
Fertility 3
Momentum 5
Migration 5
The Phases of the Transition 5
Past and Projected Population Trends 6
Projections 6
Uncertainty in Projections 11
The Economic Effects of the Demographic Transition 17
Different Effects of Changes in Mortality and Fertility 19
Saving, Retirement, and Returns 19
International Effects 21
The Influence of Public Policy 22
Appendix A: The Phases of the Demographic Transition:
An Illustrative Example 25
Appendix B: Definition of Regions 29
References 31
Figures
1. Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950 to 2050 3
2. Total Fertility Rates, 1950 to 2050 4
3. World Population Growth, 1950 to 2005 7
4. Population, 1950 to 2050 7
5. Youth Dependency Ratios, 1950 to 2050 9
6. Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950 to 2050 9
7. Population Structure During the Demographic Transition 12
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies *
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies
School of Industrial & Labor Relations
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor
New York, NY 10016
________________________________________________________________________
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
A Series on Immigration
Global Population Aging in the 21st Century and Its Economic Implications
13 DECEMBER 2005
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6952/12-12-Global.pdf
[full-text, 48 pages]
[excerpt]
The world is in the midst of a great demographic transition. The world population nearly
quadrupled during the 20th century and is projected to grow by roughly 50 percent before
stabilizing during the late 21st century. That transition is expected to leave the population
much larger and, on average, older than it was previouslydevelopments that have farreaching
implications for societies and governments throughout the world and for how they
are likely to interact.
This paper, requested by the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee,
is part of a series of reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that presents facts
and research on immigration. It describes historical and projected population trends in different
regions of the world and discusses current research on the international economic implications
of those trends. Such information will help inform CBOs projections of the domestic
and international economies and of the federal budget. In keeping with CBOs mandate to
provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, this paper makes no recommendations.
CONTENTS
Summary vii
Introduction 1
Sources of the Demographic Transition 1
Mortality and Life Expectancy 2
Fertility 3
Momentum 5
Migration 5
The Phases of the Transition 5
Past and Projected Population Trends 6
Projections 6
Uncertainty in Projections 11
The Economic Effects of the Demographic Transition 17
Different Effects of Changes in Mortality and Fertility 19
Saving, Retirement, and Returns 19
International Effects 21
The Influence of Public Policy 22
Appendix A: The Phases of the Demographic Transition:
An Illustrative Example 25
Appendix B: Definition of Regions 29
References 31
Figures
1. Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950 to 2050 3
2. Total Fertility Rates, 1950 to 2050 4
3. World Population Growth, 1950 to 2005 7
4. Population, 1950 to 2050 7
5. Youth Dependency Ratios, 1950 to 2050 9
6. Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950 to 2050 9
7. Population Structure During the Demographic Transition 12
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 8:41 AM
