Thursday, October 27, 2005
Tweet[IWS] OECD Policy Brief: U.S. Economic Survey 2005 [27 October 2005]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
OECD Policy Brief:
Economic Survey of the United States 2005 [27 October 2005]
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/4/11/35541272.pdf
Economic Survey of the United States 2005
http://www.oecd.org/document/39/0,2340,en_2649_34569_35512231_1_1_1_1,00.html
Executive Summary
http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,2340,en_2649_34569_35512850_1_1_1_1,00.html
[excerpts]
Despite higher energy prices, the expansion has continued at a solid pace, driven by private domestic demand. With the output gap closing, stimulus is appropriately being withdrawn. However, monetary tightening since mid 2004 has not yet translated into higher long-term interest rates, and the incipient decline in the federal budget deficit owes much to the recent buoyancy of revenues. Over the next 18 months, the economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3ΒΌ per cent, roughly in line with estimated potential output. Although such a soft landing is the most likely outcome, there are some risks. With little economic slack left, inflation could continue to pick up, in particular if oil prices keep rising. Insufficient public spending restraint or renewed dollar weakness associated with concerns about the external deficit might also add to inflationary pressures. On the other hand, an end to the house price boom, let alone a sharp correction, could entail a retrenchment of household expenditure that has been underpinned by rising household wealth.
The longer-term outlook also appears to be favourable. But addressing a number of issues would improve the chances of sustaining the recovery and good economic performance. They are mainly related to the lack of national saving and the associated large fiscal and external imbalances, but also concern some structural policy areas where progress in implementing reforms has been slow.
...
Addressing problems in the labour market
Expenditure on active labour-market measures (such as training) has been modest by international comparison, and the limited assistance available to job losers may be a factor contributing to rising protectionist sentiment. Trade adjustment assistance programmes (including wage insurance) could be expanded to cover displaced workers more generally. Moreover, to boost labour force participation, programmes for the disabled should be reviewed so as to reduce work disincentives.
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky *
Director, IWS News Bureau *
Institute for Workplace Studies *
Cornell/ILR School *
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor *
New York, NY 10016 *
*
Telephone: (607) 255-2703 *
Fax: (607) 255-9641 *
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu *
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies
School of Industrial & Labor Relations
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor
New York, NY 10016
________________________________________________________________________
OECD Policy Brief:
Economic Survey of the United States 2005 [27 October 2005]
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/4/11/35541272.pdf
Economic Survey of the United States 2005
http://www.oecd.org/document/39/0,2340,en_2649_34569_35512231_1_1_1_1,00.html
Executive Summary
http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,2340,en_2649_34569_35512850_1_1_1_1,00.html
[excerpts]
Despite higher energy prices, the expansion has continued at a solid pace, driven by private domestic demand. With the output gap closing, stimulus is appropriately being withdrawn. However, monetary tightening since mid 2004 has not yet translated into higher long-term interest rates, and the incipient decline in the federal budget deficit owes much to the recent buoyancy of revenues. Over the next 18 months, the economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3ΒΌ per cent, roughly in line with estimated potential output. Although such a soft landing is the most likely outcome, there are some risks. With little economic slack left, inflation could continue to pick up, in particular if oil prices keep rising. Insufficient public spending restraint or renewed dollar weakness associated with concerns about the external deficit might also add to inflationary pressures. On the other hand, an end to the house price boom, let alone a sharp correction, could entail a retrenchment of household expenditure that has been underpinned by rising household wealth.
The longer-term outlook also appears to be favourable. But addressing a number of issues would improve the chances of sustaining the recovery and good economic performance. They are mainly related to the lack of national saving and the associated large fiscal and external imbalances, but also concern some structural policy areas where progress in implementing reforms has been slow.
...
Addressing problems in the labour market
Expenditure on active labour-market measures (such as training) has been modest by international comparison, and the limited assistance available to job losers may be a factor contributing to rising protectionist sentiment. Trade adjustment assistance programmes (including wage insurance) could be expanded to cover displaced workers more generally. Moreover, to boost labour force participation, programmes for the disabled should be reviewed so as to reduce work disincentives.
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 11:19 AM
