Wednesday, March 18, 2015

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[IWS] OECD: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INTERIM GLOBAL ECONOMIC ASSESSTMENT [18 March 2015]

IWS Documented News Service

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Institute for Workplace Studies-----------------Professor Samuel B. Bacharach

School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies

Cornell University

16 East 34th Street, 4th floor--------------------Stuart Basefsky

New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau

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NOTE: Funding for this service ends on 31 March 2015. Postings will end on this date as well.

 

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND INTERIM GLOBAL ECONOMIC ASSESSTMENT [18 March 2015]

http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/economicoutlook.htm

 

Handout for the Press

Tailwinds driving a modest acceleration… but storm clouds on the horizon?

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Interim-Assessment-Handout-Mar-2015.pdf

[full-text, 12 pages]

 

[excerpt]

Growth prospects in the major economies look slightly better than at the time of the OECD November

2014 Economic Outlook, but the near-term outlook is still one of moderate, rather than rapid, world GDP

growth. Lower oil prices will boost global demand and have created conditions for many central banks to

lower interest rates. Bold and open-ended action by the European Central Bank has boosted asset prices in

the euro area and added to easier global financial conditions.

 

The favourable tailwinds create an opportunity for the euro area and Japan to get back to somewhat

stronger growth rates, and on balance the most recent indicators are encouraging. In the United States, a

cyclical recovery continues, although one-offs like the severe winter weather in the Northeast may disrupt

the quarterly profile of growth. Over the next two years India is set to grow faster than China, where

growth is slowing towards the official target of around 7%. Oil and commodity exporters are facing weaker

growth prospects as the result of lower prices.

 

However, against this backdrop of somewhat better growth prospects, abnormally low inflation and

interest rates create a growing risk of financial instability with risk-taking and leverage driven by liquidity

rather than fundamentals. Moreover, projected growth rates remain too low to fully repair and activate

labour markets. While central bank policies remain the centrepiece of the recovery, the exclusive reliance

on monetary policy to manage demand should be avoided to mitigate these risks. A more balanced

approach to policy is required with fiscal and, especially, structural policies providing synergistic support to

monetary policy.

 

Press Release 18 March 2015

Low oil prices and monetary easing triggering modest acceleration of global recovery

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/low-oil-prices-and-monetary-easing-triggering-modest-acceleration-of-global-recovery.htm

 

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