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Tweet[IWS] CRS: SOCIAL SECURITY: WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE TRUST FUNDS RAN OUT? [28 August 2014]
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Congressional Research Service (CRS)
Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out?
Noah P. Meyerson, Analyst in Income Security
August 28, 2014
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33514.pdf?
[full-text, 17 pages]
Summary
The Social Security Trustees project that, under their intermediate assumptions and under current
law, the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund will become exhausted in 2016 and the Old-Age and
Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will become exhausted in 2034. Although the two funds
are legally separate, they are often considered in combination. The trustees project that the
combined Social Security trust funds will become exhausted in 2033. At that point, revenue
would be sufficient to pay only about 77% of scheduled benefits.
If a trust fund became exhausted, there would be a conflict between two federal laws. Under the
Social Security Act, beneficiaries would still be legally entitled to their full scheduled benefits.
But the Antideficiency Act prohibits government spending in excess of available funds, so the
Social Security Administration (SSA) would not have legal authority to pay full Social Security
benefits on time.
It is unclear what specific actions SSA would take if a trust fund were exhausted. After
insolvency, Social Security would continue to receive tax income, from which a majority of
scheduled benefits could be paid. One option would be to pay full benefit checks on a delayed
schedule; another would be to make timely but reduced payments. Social Security beneficiaries
would remain legally entitled to full, timely benefits and could take legal action to claim the
balance of their benefits.
To delay insolvency of the DI trust fund, Congress could effectively transfer funds from the OASI
to the DI trust fund, for example by increasing the share of Social Security payroll tax revenues
that are credited to the DI trust fund. Such action would hasten the insolvency of the OASI trust
fund, however.
Maintaining financial balance after trust fund insolvency would require substantial reductions in
Social Security benefits, substantial increases in income, or some combination of the two. The
trustees project that following insolvency of the combined funds in 2033, Congress could restore
balance by reducing scheduled benefits by about 23%; the required reduction would grow
gradually to 27% by 2088. Alternatively, Congress could raise the Social Security payroll tax rate
from 12.40% to 16.2% following insolvency in 2033, then gradually increase it to 17.3% by
2088. To maintain balance in later years, larger benefit reductions or tax increases would be
required.
Trust-fund insolvency could be avoided if outlays were reduced or income increased sufficiently.
The sooner Congress acts to adjust Social Security policy, the less abrupt the changes would need
to be, because they could be spread over a longer period and would therefore affect a larger
number of workers and beneficiaries. Even if changes were not implemented immediately,
enacting them sooner would give workers and beneficiaries time to plan and adjust their work and
savings behavior.
Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1
The Social Security Trust Funds ...................................................................................................... 1
How the Trust Funds Work ........................................................................................................ 1
Trust Fund Receipts ............................................................................................................. 2
Trust Fund Expenditures ..................................................................................................... 2
Annual Surpluses and Deficits ............................................................................................ 2
Trust Fund Solvency ........................................................................................................... 3
Historical Trust Fund Operations .............................................................................................. 3
Cash-Flow Surpluses and Deficits ...................................................................................... 3
Near-Insolvency in the Early 1980s .................................................................................... 3
Social Security Financial Projections ........................................................................................ 4
Trust Fund Ratio .................................................................................................................. 4
Legal Background on Trust Fund Insolvency .................................................................................. 5
The Antideficiency Act .............................................................................................................. 5
Legal Entitlement to Social Security Benefits ........................................................................... 6
What Happens to Benefits in the Case of Insolvency? .............................................................. 6
What If Congress Waits to Act? ....................................................................................................... 7
Benefit Cut Scenario .................................................................................................................. 8
Size of Benefit Cuts............................................................................................................. 8
Payroll Tax Increase Scenario ................................................................................................. 11
Size of Payroll Tax Rate Increases .................................................................................... 12
Impact of Payroll Tax Increases ........................................................................................ 12
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 13
Figures
Figure 1. Social Security Trust Fund Ratios .................................................................................... 5
Figure 2. Payable Benefits as a Share of Scheduled Benefits at Current Law Payroll Tax
Rates, 2014-2088 .......................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 3. Replacement Rates Under Benefit Cut Scenario, 2014-2088 ......................................... 10
Figure 4. Initial Real Annual Payable Benefits Under Benefit Cut Scenario, 2014-2088 ............. 11
Figure 5. Combined Payroll Tax Rate Needed To Fund Scheduled Benefits, 2014-2088 ............. 12
Tables
Table 1. Current Social Security Benefit Payment Schedule ........................................................... 7
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 13
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