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[IWS] THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION? [17 September 2013]
IWS Documented News Service
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?
Carl Benedik Frey† and Michael A. Osborne
September 17, 2013
[full-text, 72 pages]
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess
this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate
the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a
Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected
impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes,
with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and
the relationship between an occupation's probability of computerisation,
wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47
percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence
that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship
with an occupation's probability of computerisation.
Press Release 18 September 2013
Oxford Martin School study shows nearly half of US jobs could be at risk of computerisation
Transport, logistics and office roles most likely to come under threat
Nearly half of US jobs could be susceptible to computerisation over the next two decades, a study from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology suggests.
The study, a collaboration between Dr Carl Benedikt Frey (Oxford Martin School) and Dr Michael A. Osborne (Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford), found that jobs in transportation, logistics, as well as office and administrative support, are at "high risk" of automation. More surprisingly, occupations within the service industry are also highly susceptible, despite recent job growth in this sector.
"We identified several key bottlenecks currently preventing occupations being automated," says Dr. Osborne. "As big data helps to overcome these obstacles, a great number of jobs will be put at risk."
The study examined over 700 detailed occupation types, noting the types of tasks workers perform and the skills required. By weighting these factors, as well as the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerisation, the researchers assessed the degree to which these occupations may be automated in the coming decades.
"Our findings imply that as technology races ahead, low-skilled workers will move to tasks that are not susceptible to computerisation — i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence," the paper states. "For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills."
Dr Frey said the United Kingdom is expected to face a similar challenge to the US. "While our analysis was based on detailed datasets relating to US occupations, the implications are likely to extend to employment in the UK and other developed countries," he said.
The working paper is available from the programme's website: (http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk)
For further information, please contact the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology:
Dr Michael A. Osborne is a University Lecturer in the Machine Learning Research Group of the University of Oxford's Department of Engineering Science. His research interests focus on the design of intelligent systems: algorithms capable of substituting for human time and attention. He has worked to apply his novel techniques to scientific and engineering problems in fields as diverse as astrostatistics, ornithology and sensor networks.
Dr Carl Benedikt Frey is an economics researcher with the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology and Nuffield College.
His work focuses on technological change and its potential impacts on labour markets, as well as on income inequality. He has previously worked as an economist in government, academia and the financial sector.
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