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[IWS] CBO: RISING DEMAND FOR LONG-TERM SERVICES FOR ELDERLY PEOPLE [26 June 2013]

IWS Documented News Service

_______________________________

Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach

School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies

Cornell University

16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky

New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau

________________________________________________________________________

 

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

 

Rising Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People [26 June 2013]

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/44363-LTC.pdf

[full-text, 44 pages]

 

[excerpt]

By 2050, one-fifth of the total U.S. population will be elderly (that is, 65 or older), up from 12 percent in 2000 and 8 percent in 1950. The number of people age 85 or older will grow the fastest over the next few decades, constituting 4 percent of the population by 2050, or 10 times its share in 1950. That growth in the elderly population will bring a corresponding surge in the number of elderly people with functional and cognitive limitations. Functional limitations are physical problems that limit a person’s ability to perform routine daily activities, such as eating, bathing, dressing, paying bills, and preparing meals. Cognitive limitations are losses in mental acuity that may also restrict a person’s ability to perform such activities. On average, about one-third of people age 65 or older report functional limitations of one kind or another; among people age 85 or older, about two-thirds report functional limitations. One study estimates that more than two-thirds of 65-year-olds will need assistance to deal with a loss in functioning at some point during their remaining years of life. If those rates of prevalence continue, the number of elderly people with functional or cognitive limitations, and thus the need for assistance, will increase sharply in coming decades.

 

List of Exhibits

Financing Long-Term Services and Supports for an Aging Population in the United States

1. Elderly Adults As a Share of the U.S. Population, 2000 to 2050 7

2. Elderly Adults As a Share of All Adults Age 18 or Older, 2010 to 2050 8

3. Estimated Economic Value of Formal and Informal Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People in the United States, 2011 9

4. Expenditures for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People, 2011 10 Functional and Cognitive Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community

5. Functional Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community, 2000 to 2010 12

6. Functional Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community, by Educational Attainment, 2000 to 2010 13

7. Functional Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community, by Race and Ethnicity, 2000 to 2010 14

8. Functional and Cognitive Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community, by Age, 2000 to 2010 15

9. Probability of Receiving Assistance, by Functional and Cognitive Limitations, Among Elderly People Living in the Community, 2000 to 2010 16

10. Average Caregiver Hours per Day for Elderly People Living in the Community Who Are Receiving Any Care, by Age and Limitations, 2000 to 2010 17

 

Providing Long-Term Services and Supports

11. Rates of Institutionalization Among Elderly People, by Age, 2010 19

12. Living Arrangements for Elderly People Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports, 2010 20

13. Characteristics of Elderly People Living in Nursing Homes, 2010 21

14. Characteristics of Elderly People Living in Residential Care Facilities and Other Institutions, 2001 to 2010 22

 

Paying for Long-Term Services and Supports

15. Prices of Long-Term Services and Supports for People Paying Out of Pocket or With Private Insurance, 2002 to 2012 24

16. Medicare Spending for Postacute Care and Medicaid Spending for Long-Term Services and Supports, for Beneficiaries Age 65 or Older, Fiscal Years 1995 to 2023 25

17. Share of Elderly People Enrolled in Medicaid, by Type of Residence, 2001 to 2010 26

18. Coverage by Medicaid and Private Long-Term Care Insurance Among Elderly People Living in the Community, by Functional Limitations, 2000 to 2010 27

19. Enrollment in Private Long-Term Care Insurance, 1999 to 2011 28

20. Coverage Through the Partnership for Long-Term Care, 2000 to 2011 29

 

Three Possible Scenarios of Trends in Functional Limitations and the Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports 30

21. Projected Demand for Caregivers for Elderly People Living in the Community: Three Possible Scenarios, 2010 to 2050 31

22. Future Prevalence of Functional Limitations Among Elderly People Living in the Community: Three Possible Scenarios, 2010 to 2050 32

23. Future Spending for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People: Three Possible Scenarios, 2010 to 2050 33

 

About This Document 35

Glossary 37

 

 

________________________________________________________________________

This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.

 




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